Ed's Chess Blog

After a long wait, the chess event of the year is nearly here: Viswanathan Anand vs. Vladimir Kramnik in a 12-game match to determine the World Chess Champion. The opening ceremony is Monday, and the first game is scheduled for Tuesday, 3 PM local time in Bonn, Germany (that's 9 AM Eastern US). The official site has complete coverage, including schedules, regulations, player background information and more.

Twelve games is rather short for a championship match, a far cry from the traditional 24 games (or more) that were customary throughout the 20th century. Perhaps the biggest problem with the match is the elimination of draw odds for the current champion (Anand); rather, a 6-6 tie will be broken by a 4-game mini-match of rapid games. A draw in the rapid portion will then give us the ridiculous situation of having the World Championship decided by blitz chess -- and a draw there would put us in the even less desirable position of having a World Champion decided by a single "Armageddon" tiebreak game. I don't think anyone truly believes these tiebreakers are the proper way of choosing the world's leading player.

Then again, we can cross that bridge when we get to it. For now, let's just look forward to a few weeks of great chess and hope it doesn't come to tiebreaks. Fan polls seem to be evenly divided between Kramnik and Anand, and it's easy to see why: Anand has seemed like the stronger in recent years, while Kramnik has historically been a better match player.

Trying to come up with a prediction for this match has been difficult, and I've gone back and forth in my mind as to who I think has the better chances. The match feels pretty close to a toss-up to be honest, and I think most experts would agree that the match could easily go either way. That said, my instinct is to give a slight edge to Anand, the current champion. Disregarding his disastrous result in Bilbao (which seems fair, considering he was likely saving opening preparation for this match), he's been the stronger player as of late. Incidentally, his proficiency in rapid and blitz chess make him a heavy favorite should the match come down to the dreaded tiebreak games.

I predict Anand will win 6.5-5.5. What do you think? Post your predictions, or vote in the poll below. I'll be adding more coverage of the match after each game.

The Queens Pioneers drew the New Jersey Knockouts Monday night, clinching the first playoff spot in the US Chess League this season. At 5.5-1.5, the Pioneers cannot finish any lower than 4th in the Eastern Division, even if they lose their last 3 matches. The Carolina Cobras are also on the verge of clinching after a 3.5-0.5 drubbing of the Baltimore Kingfishers. Both the Cobras and the Knockouts are sitting at 4.5-2.5.

Out in the Western Division, the San Francisco Mechanics solidified their hold on first place with a 3-1 win over the Seattle Sluggers. However, the tightly packed West is still up for grabs, as the defending champion Dallas Destiny are just one game back. Behind them, there appears to be a three-team race between Miami, Chicago and Seattle for the last two playoff spots - although both Arizona and Tennessee retain faint playoff hopes.

Next week's biggest matches might be on Monday. The Miami Sharks take on the Dallas Destiny in a match which could all but secure a playoff birth for the winner, while Carolina battles New Jersey in what could be a preview of a first round playoff match. The Wednesday headliner is likely Seattle vs. Arizona, with both teams desperately needing a win to bolster their playoff hopes.

Rybka is clearly the top computer chess program around these days, and it comes as no surprise that the program won the 2008 World Computer Chess Championship. Rybka finished with a score of 8/9, a full point ahead of HIARCS, and two points ahead of Junior. The tournament was held in Beijing.

Rybka won 7 games and allowed just two draws with Black against Junior and the 4th-place finisher, ClusterToga. Junior actually had Rybka on the ropes, but missed a perpetual check that allowed Rybka to escape with the draw. Interestingly, both draws for the champion came in the slightly offbeat O'Kelly Variation of the Sicilian Defense.

It would have been shocking had Rybka not won the tournament, considering it not only leads every computer rating list, but was also running on the best hardware of any tournament program; I think it might be more sporting to provide each program with similar hardware as much as possible, even if this reduces the objective quality of the chess slightly. That said, it's hard to imagine that it would matter in this case.

What always fascinates me about computer chess is that even these superhuman machines still find ways to beat each other. Rybka didn't lose a game this tournament, but did have that one bad game against Junior, and has certainly been beat by other programs at other tournaments before. In any case, it's clear that even these programs aren't playing perfectly, or at least close enough to guarantee at least a draw in every game. How long will it be until we have a truly unbeatable chess machine?

Fresh off a victory in Bilbao, Topalov has taken the top spot on FIDE's October Ratings list. Alexander Morozevich is second, a point ahead of Vassily Ivanchuk and Magnus Carlsen.

It may surprise many chess fans to find Viswanathan Anand and Vladimir Kramnik -- the two contestants in the upcoming World Championship match -- ranked 5th and 6th respectively. Two things to keep in mind:

• Anand and Kramnik may not be on top, but they are both within 20 points of the leader. Right now, there's a lot of parity at the top of chess.
• As has been mentioned by many commentators, it's likely that both players have been holding back on opening preparation, saving that instead for their match.

With such a tightly packed group, it shouldn't be a surprise if any of the top six are first on the next ratings list. That said, it seems only a matter of time before young Magnus Carlsen becomes the clear #1 player in the world, barring a sudden halt in his improvement.

The Queens Pioneers flew out of the gate with 5 straight wins before falling to the Carolina Cobras in week six. Still, at 5-1, Queens holds a full point lead over the New Jersey Knockouts at the top of the Eastern Division standings. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams from each division make the players. Carolina and the Boston Blitz round out the top four in the East.

Queens has been led by International Master Alex Lenderman, who has posted an impressive 5-0 start to his season, and currently leads the league MVP race.

Over in the Western Division, the San Francisco Mechanics stand alone at the top with a 4.5-1.5 record. The rest of the division is tightly packed, with six teams fighting for three more playoff spots. The Dallas Destiny and the Seattle Sluggers are in the best positions at 3.5-2.5, but even the 2-4 Tennessee Tempo have to feel like they have a shot at making it to the postseason.

If you'd like to catch the action live, USCL matches are played weekly on the Internet Chess Club, on Monday and Wednesday nights. Or, keep reading this blog to get weekly updates on the race for the playoffs. Who do you think will find their way to the postseason?

Earth won't be playing without some guidance. Before voting begins on each move, the chess club members from Stevenson Elementary School in Bellevue, Washington -- the K-3 national champions - will narrow Earth's choices to four, from which the public will choose the one move that is played.

The game has already begun with Chamitoff playing 1. d4, and Earth responding with Nf6. You can follow all the action and participate in voting from the USCF's special page devoted to the game.

For the first two games of the match, there was only the smallest of handicaps - Rybka played black in both games, instead of switching colors with Milov. Still, Rybka scored 1.5 out of 2 in these even games with the black pieces. Milov then scored 1.5/2 in the next phase of the match, where Rybka gave the classic "pawn and move" handicap - playing black and removing the pawn on f7 before the start of the game.

The second half of the match was played with odds of the exchange: Rybka played white without the a1 rook, while Milov was black without the b8 knight. Milov won one of the four games, while the rest ended in draws. The final score was narrowly in Milov's favor: 4.5-3.5.

What does this mean for the future of human-computer matches? We're likely to see many more where human grandmasters take small-to-moderate handicaps in order to keep things competitive, and humans will certainly have fair chances to win those matches, no matter how good the computers get. On the other hand, is it still possible for a human to challenge Rybka or another top computer program in an even match? Most would say it's doubtful that the humans can hang in there, but Milov thinks he'd have a chance against Rybka - provided he could have white every game and the financial incentives were large enough to make extensive preparation worthwhile. This might be an overly optimistic assessment, but I doubt we've seen the last of human-computer matches on even terms.

Let me know your thoughts: do you think we'll ever see a top human play a top computer to at least a draw in a match again?

The tournament, held in Nalchik, Russia, was plagued by controversy due to the recent Russia-Georgia conflict. Several top players, including the entire Georgian delegation, refused to play.

The real story of the tournament may be Hou Yifan. Despite losing in the final to the more experienced Kosteniuk, Hou became the youngest player ever to contest the Women's World Championship. At just 14 years old, and with her rating already over 2550, expect to see some big results from Hou in the coming years.

For Kosteniuk, this marks her first World Championship title, though she has been on the cusp of success before; she lost 5-3 to Zhu Chen in the 2001 final. Kosteniuk has been one of the most recognizable female faces in chess, and is certainly a worthy champion. That said, it's worth noting that the undisputed strongest female player of all time, Judit Polgar, doesn't participate in these tournaments.

There are a few points of interest about the Bilbao tournament:

• Bilbao uses a unique scoring system designed to encourage fighting play. Wins are awarded 3 points, while draws score 1 point. In addition, the players are not allowed to offer draws to one another; only the arbiter can declare a game drawn.
• Magnus Carlsen has a legitimate chance to become the world's top-ranked player at the end of this tournament - making him the world's #1 before he turns 18! According to the Live Ratings List, which calculates ratings after each round, Carlsen currently has a slight lead (about 1 point) on Anand.
• There can be no complaints about the prize fund: a cool €400,000, or about $570,000. €150,000 ($214,000) goes to the winner, with the rest split among the other five players.

Abhijeet Gupta took first place in the Junior Championship with a 10/13 score, while Harika Dronavalli won the Girls’ Championship with 10.5 points. Both players are from India, as were silver medalists in both sections. It’s the first time both winners have come from the same country.

Indian chess is on the rise – an ascent that began when current World Champion Viswanathan Anand won his own World Junior Championship in 1987. His success dramatically increased India’s interest in chess; while Anand was the first Indian Grandmaster, the country now has 17, and approximately 150 titled players now hail from India.

Russia is still the dominant force in international chess, but both India and China are trying to stake their claim as chess superpowers. Both nations have their strengths: India has a World Champion in Anand, while China has shown great depth in winning several medals at recent Chess Olympiads. It may only be a matter of time before one of these rising powers puts the entire package together to become a dominant force in world chess.